As we approach May 9th, a date of immense significance on the Russian calendar, we find ourselves in a unique and intriguing situation. The annual Victory Day celebrations, a grand spectacle usually marked by a military parade on Moscow's Red Square, have been scaled back this year due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. This development is a stark reminder of the complex dynamics at play in the region and the evolving nature of international relations.
The Significance of Victory Day
Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet Union's triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II, holds a special place in Russian culture and identity. It is a day of national pride and remembrance, a time when Russians reflect on their country's role in the war and the sacrifices made by their ancestors. As Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst, puts it, "For modern Russia, it's the main holiday of the year."
A Changed Celebration
However, this year's celebrations will be markedly different. For the first time in nearly two decades, the parade will not feature the usual display of military might, with tanks, missiles, and junior cadets absent. This decision is a direct response to heightened security concerns and the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. While personnel from military academies will still march on foot, the aerial display will remain, showcasing the Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets in a patriotic sky show.
The Drone Factor
Ukrainian drones have become a significant factor in the conflict, striking deeper into Russian territory with increasing frequency. As Olha Polishchuk, a research manager at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), explains, "Drones are indeed the primary means to attack Russia's territory. They are relatively cheap, modifiable, and can travel long distances."
The recent drone attacks on the Tuapse oil refinery, causing an ecological disaster and the evacuation of the town, have heightened fears in Moscow. Security measures have been tightened, with mobile internet periodically shut off in major cities, and anti-drone defences bolstered. Moscow's air defence system, a multi-layered network of missile systems and electronic warfare, is a formidable challenge for any attacking drones.
Political and Psychological Impact
Despite the strong air defence, the Victory Day ceremonies present a clear risk. The concentration of troops and vehicles during the parade makes for an attractive target, and the potential psychological impact of a successful drone attack is not lost on the Kremlin. As Ignatov notes, "They are more afraid of groups of people using small drones... Even if one or a couple of small drones hit a military parade, it may not cause a casualty, but it will have a demonstrative and psychological effect."
A Tradition Transformed
The Victory Day parade has its roots in the communist era, a time when Soviet statesmen would wave to the public from atop Lenin's tomb. It was a display of military strength and a chance for the superpower to showcase its might. However, with the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the parades were shelved for nearly two decades until President Vladimir Putin revived them in 2008.
Since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, the parade has been scaled back again, with only a symbolic T-34 tank rolling across Red Square in 2024. Last year's proceedings saw a more extensive display, with modern tanks and ballistic missiles, and even the presence of Chinese soldiers marching alongside Russian troops.
A Day of Multiethnic Unity
British historian Geoffrey Roberts describes Victory Day as "the most sacred date on Russia's political calendar." It is a celebration of the Soviet and Allied defeat of Hitler's Nazi-Fascist alliance, a reminder of the international antifascist unity during World War II. The Eastern Front, known as the Great Patriotic War in Russia, holds a central place in Russian national memory, with over 27 million Soviet citizens losing their lives.
However, the current Russian government's use of Victory Day is seen by some as a "cynical distortion of history." Polishchuk suggests that the day has been twisted to support aggressive behaviour and militarisation, feeding into a narrative of Russian strength and invincibility. This posturing becomes even more critical during an ongoing war, shaping public opinion and justifying military actions.
A Symbolic Attack?
Modern Ukraine views Victory Day as celebrated in Russia today as a distortion of history and seeks to discourage foreign dignitaries from attending. While Ukraine typically focuses on military targets, an attack on Moscow during the parade appears largely symbolic. With air defence on high alert and security concerns already high, Ukraine may choose to conserve resources and avoid an attack. However, Russian authorities must still take steps to reduce the risk, demonstrating their commitment to security and national pride.
Conclusion
The scaling back of Victory Day celebrations this year is a fascinating development, offering a unique insight into the complex dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It highlights the evolving nature of warfare, with drones playing an increasingly significant role, and the psychological and political impact of symbolic attacks. As we reflect on the significance of Victory Day, we are reminded of the power of national memory and the ways in which it can be manipulated and leveraged during times of conflict. It is a reminder that, while history may be a guide, it is not always an accurate predictor of future actions and outcomes.
