The looming threat of grounded planes due to dwindling jet fuel supplies is a pressing concern, particularly for Asia and Europe, which heavily rely on oil from the Gulf and its refineries. The Strait of Hormuz closure, a result of the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, has disrupted the flow of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, exacerbating the risk of shortages. Rystad Energy economist Claudio Galimberti warns that the situation could become "systemic" within the next few weeks, leading to severe flight cancellations in Europe as early as May and June. While the European Commission denies an immediate lack of fuel, it acknowledges potential supply issues in the near future. The Airports Council International Europe and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have also raised concerns, with the IEA predicting that stocks could hit a critical level in June if European markets fail to secure sufficient Middle East volumes. The situation is complex, with varying levels of dependency and reserves across different countries in Europe. Smaller, inland airports are expected to be more vulnerable, and airlines are struggling with limited visibility to plan their schedules. The trade association Airlines for Europe (A4E) is urging the European Union to provide real-time jet fuel stock data, which is currently hindered by the reluctance of fuel suppliers to share sensitive commercial information. The situation is further complicated by the potential need for US jet fuel imports, which are produced to a different standard and face regulatory, political, and logistical challenges. The crisis highlights the fragility of global fuel supply chains and the potential impact on air travel, underscoring the need for proactive measures to ensure energy security and mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical tensions.
